Israel Vote: Polls Show Netanyahu Loses Majority, Eisenkot Leads Coalition Race

Israeli voters rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc in Tuesday’s election, according to exit polls that show his opponents holding a slim majority in the next parliament. The results suggest a decisive shift in power, though the fragmented nature of the opposition leaves the final outcome undecided.

Surveys released by major Israeli television networks placed Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats. The opposition parties are projected to win 52 seats, while Arab-led parties are expected to take 18. This distribution means no single side commands a clear mandate, forcing leaders into an immediate and complex negotiation process to form a stable government.

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot emerges as the primary challenger. He declared that the polls reflect a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and vowed to form a new government. Eisenkot stated he would act immediately to replace the current cabinet and create a Zionist government committed to military conscription.

The coalition math presents a difficult puzzle for Eisenkot. The easiest path to a majority involves partnering with Arab-led parties. However, this alliance could alienate other opposition factions and face intense resistance from Netanyahu’s allies, who are likely to label such a government as illegitimate or even treasonous.

Voter turnout reached more than 77% of eligible voters, the highest level since 1999. The Central Elections Committee reported that over 7 million people were eligible to vote. Tens of thousands of citizens residing abroad also cast ballots, indicating high engagement in what many viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly 17-year rule.

The election serves as the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. In Tel Aviv, families of victims and former hostages observed a moment of silence during the vote. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed on that day, urged voters to remember those whose voices are no more.

Netanyahu had not issued a public statement two hours after the exit polls were released. At his party headquarters, supporters chanted his name and draped themselves in flags bearing his face. His base views him as a steady hand who has protected Israel’s security and identity, despite his ongoing corruption trial and the war in Gaza.

Critics, however, argue that Netanyahu prolonged the war and hostage crisis for political gain while undermining the judiciary. They point to the growing isolation of Israel, including plummeting support among Americans and sanctions from European partners. Netanyahu also faces an international arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, a charge he denies.

The political process now shifts to Israel’s president, who must task the leader with the best prospect of forming a government. If no majority coalition can be assembled, the country may face another round of elections early next year. Israel has held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to similar stalemates.

Final results are expected in the coming days and may vary from the preliminary exit polls. The outcome will determine whether Israel can break its cycle of political limbo or if it must continue to navigate the deep social and political divisions that have widened during the current administration.