Analysts predict third U.S. Iran war to start after Nov 3 votes

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, predicts that the United States and Israel will resume their war with Iran immediately after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. He argues that a third phase of the conflict is nearly certain and will be more destructive than the two prior campaigns.

Citrinowicz, who spent more than two decades in Israel's military intelligence, believes President Donald Trump is limited to poor strategic choices in the Persian Gulf. He expects the new fighting to focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and the internet lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also anticipates that Iran may deploy parts of its land army for limited attacks on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain that host American bases, aiming to strike the U.S. economy directly.

The two nations have already fought two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and lasted 12 days before a fragile ceasefire. Fighting returned in February following a major U.S. military buildup, with Israel striking Iranian senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Since the summer truce broke down, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran continues to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have raised global energy costs. On Thursday, President Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the elections, claiming on Truth Social that it was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that the vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Iranian negotiators seek sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation would likely come from proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting soft economic sites like airports.

The human cost of the conflict is high. Western NGOs report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed, with additional deaths recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it remains unclear if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of "finishing the job" against the Iranian regime and faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz notes that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that diplomacy has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims, suggesting Iran will only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit.