Israel's 58-Seat Threshold: Eisenkot's Minority Plan Sparks Internal Friction

Gadi Eisenkot has set a floor of 58 seats for a potential minority government, a threshold that would allow the anti-Netanyahu bloc to take power without the traditional 61-seat majority. This specific number anchors a new strategy emerging as polls show the opposition camp ahead of the current coalition, yet short of a guaranteed governing majority. Eisenkot, who seeks the premiership, argues that a government can be sworn in with a confidence vote that includes abstentions, provided it then works to expand its parliamentary support.

The path to this proposal began with recent election surveys indicating that Zionist parties seeking change will likely fail to secure 61 seats. While some polls suggest the right-wing bloc might also fall short, the uncertainty has forced the opposition to consider unconventional options. Eisenkot rejected any role under Benjamin Netanyahu, including rotation, and proposed this minority model as a fallback if the change-seeking parties win between 58 and 59 seats. Legally, this is distinct from removing an incumbent government, which requires a constructive vote of no confidence backed by 61 MKs.

Resistance to the plan has come from within the bloc. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, leaders of the Beyachad list, insist on a Zionist government that does not rely on Arab party abstentions. Avigdor Liberman has categorically rejected a minority cabinet, even a transitional one, stating that another election is preferable to a government that fails his conditions. Liberman has also suggested recruiting Likud MKs to join a government without Netanyahu, though no public negotiations are currently under way.

This week, Eisenkot and Liberman met and agreed to focus on increasing voter turnout, but they did not resolve their strategic differences. Leadership rivalry persists, with Bennett viewing his prior experience as prime minister as a qualification for the role, while Eisenkot aims to lead the largest party. Democrats chairman Yair Golan remains open to cooperation with the Ra'am party, a potential source of outside support for Eisenkot’s plan.

Simultaneously, the opposition is working to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition is formed. Controlling the speaker’s chair would allow opponents of Netanyahu to set the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains as caretaker prime minister. The bloc could secure a majority for a new speaker by drawing on MKs from Arab parties. Candidates mentioned include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, and Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list.

Liberman estimated that up to one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, but these votes would need to be public. The bloc also aims to advance a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, modify conscription laws, and limit the prime minister’s tenure. While party teams have begun coordinating on these legislative goals, no binding agreement exists on the order of work or specific details.

Obstacles remain for the opposition. Not every member supports every judicial change, and a new speaker does not automatically grant a legislative majority. Additionally, laws targeting Netanyahu may face constitutional hurdles. The memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its agenda, continues to influence the current negotiations.