Eisenkot's Yashar leads final poll as Israel votes with no clear path to 61 seats

Voters across Israel began casting ballots on Tuesday morning in a Knesset election that leaves both major political blocs short of a governing majority. Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m., and exit polls are scheduled for release at 10:00 p.m. to provide preliminary projections. The official count will take several days to finalize.

The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his sitting coalition against an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. In the final Channel 12 poll released on Friday, the opposition bloc was projected to win 56 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 50 seats. The Arab parties were projected to win a combined 16 seats. Neither bloc can form a government without the support of the Arab parties, which most opposition leaders have pledged not to include in a coalition.

This is the first national vote since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The political issues have shifted from traditional debates to immediate security and institutional challenges. Central topics for voters include the Israel Defense Forces’ manpower crisis after three years of war, legislation regarding the conscription of haredi men, and demands for a state commission of inquiry into the government’s handling of the October 7 events. The prospect of a Palestinian state has moved to the background, with most major parties agreeing to oppose its establishment.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 non-consecutive years, faces a difficult election. His Likud party is projected to win 19 seats, a drop from the 32 seats it holds in the current Knesset. The opposition’s Yashar party is projected to win 22 seats, making it the largest single party. B’Yachad, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, is projected to win 14 seats.

Voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad concluded on October 16. Some military bases began voting the previous week. The outcome of the election will depend heavily on voter turnout and the performance of smaller parties trying to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. At a 70% turnout rate, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset, according to calculations by the Taub Center’s Prof. Alex Weinreb.

Several small parties are fighting for a place in the new Knesset, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics party. If these parties clear the threshold, they could influence the ability of the larger blocs to form coalitions. A slight shift in votes for these groups could determine whether they gain representation or leave their supporters without a seat in parliament.

Police have prepared for potential public order disruptions, particularly after the release of exit polls. Approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers are deployed across the country. Forces are stationed at polling stations and in surrounding areas to maintain safety and protect the integrity of the voting process.

The police stated that these measures are intended to ensure the democratic process is conducted properly and in accordance with the law. The final seat count will determine which blocs can negotiate a government and which parties will hold the balance of power in the new parliament.