Three-Knesset Party May Decide Israel's Next Government

Three members of the Israeli Knesset hold the potential to dictate the outcome of the country's upcoming election. Assessments within the political establishment suggest that Agudat Yisrael, a Haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could provide the decisive votes required for a government led by the opposition. With voting scheduled to start within 24 hours, political figures are weighing several scenarios, including a cabinet dependent on Arab party support or a return to the polls for a second election.

One specific proposal under review involves Agudat Yisrael offering its backing to an opposition-led administration in exchange for budgetary commitments. However, analysts note that even such a deal would not automatically eliminate the necessity for votes from Arab parties to secure a stable majority. The concept of cooperation between this ultra-Orthodox group and the change bloc is not entirely new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring new political options, including potential cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot.

These discussions occurred against a backdrop of internal tension within United Torah Judaism. Friction emerged between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah regarding the Haredi military draft and their relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed dissatisfaction with the coalition's conduct, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in the current government. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the Haredi parties' alignment.

Goldknopf faces a specific challenge despite his potential leverage. His voters are generally aligned with the right wing. Political assessments indicate that any visible support for a change-bloc government could drive some of his constituents toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic creates a risk that his faction's pivot could cost him seats in the very election where his influence is most needed.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures a majority of 61 seats, Bennett might determine the shape of the next government. One possibility discussed in political circles is that Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government in this scenario. This is considered a remote outcome. Some observers argue Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc capable of such a move due to his right-wing background, though it would require shifting his base of support.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential wildcard, given his history of serving as defense minister in a Netanyahu cabinet. However, current assessments suggest Liberman is unlikely to make a similar move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister. For now, these scenarios remain part of political analysis rather than finalized agreements between parties.