640,000 new ballots may determine 12 seats in Israel's Knesset

Ordinary Israelis aged 18 to 22 hold a disproportionate amount of influence in the general election taking place on Tuesday, Oct. 27. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) calculates that 640,000 young people are eligible to vote for the first time. This cohort represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choices could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member parliament.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, stated that the institute co-sponsored a recent event with the Yigal Allon Center for this demographic. She noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. Hoffman said, "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference." The IDI conducted a survey in May of prospective Jewish and Arab first-time voters. Results indicated that between 80% and 95% said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents expressed similar intent.

These statistics contrast with data from the United States. The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reported a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election. In Israel, a separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote. An additional 19% said they thought they would vote. Both major surveys identified national security and the cost of living as the top concerns for young voters across population groups.

Hoffman explained that these issues resonate because this generation experienced specific historical events during their adolescence. She noted they were in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. "They are worried about their future," she said. Political alignment among this group is complex. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right. Only 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% intended to vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, while 14% supported Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud.

Individual voters in Ramat Hasharon, Jerusalem, and other cities reflect this political diversity. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, is in an army preparation program in the Negev. She plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar, both part of the opposition bloc seeking to remove Netanyahu from office. Omer Gross, a program participant in the Golan, intends to vote for the Religious Zionist party. He supports its policies in the West Bank despite disagreements regarding Gaza. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliyah, will vote for the change bloc to enforce universal military service for ultra-Orthodox men and reduce living costs.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist who remains anonymous per IDF regulations, prioritizes universal service but is voting for economic reasons. He cited the high costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, is urging his friends to vote for an Arab party that addresses resource gaps and crime. He stated, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."

The election will determine the composition of the new government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led the country since 2009, with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022. The opposition bloc aims to end his tenure. The final tally will depend on whether the projected high turnout among the 640,000 first-time voters materializes at the polls.