Lula wins fourth presidential term in Brazil after narrow runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a closely contested runoff. The 80-year-old incumbent received 51.79 percent of the vote, or 51.79 percent of 159 million eligible voters, compared to Bolsonaro’s 48.21 percent. The margin amounted to approximately 4.3 million votes. Lula described the outcome as a defeat for denialism in a statement released after the results were declared just after midnight UK time.

The victory represents a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the Workers’ Party. In the first round held in early October, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes to Lula’s 53.8 million. That margin gave Bolsonaro a lead of nearly two percentage points, a position from which a runner-up has never won a second-round election since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985. Polls tightened in the weeks following the first ballot, with the gap shrinking to fractions of a percentage point before the final count.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede the loss, citing a decision to extend voting hours by two days as a reason for his dissatisfaction. He called the result impossible to accept. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his defeat in 2022. Observers noted that the younger Bolsonaro’s campaign had been hampered by scandals, including a magazine report that he attended a boat party during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

Lula’s campaign gained momentum after a record abstention rate of 21 percent in the first round. Millions of supporters joined a WhatsApp group called Lula’s army to coordinate digital outreach. The president began posting on Instagram and TikTok, a platform he had previously avoided, and his digital reach surpassed that of his rival for the first time. Bernardo Mello Franco, a political columnist for O Globo, noted that the far-right movement had deep roots in Brazilian society, driven by evangelical support and anti-establishment sentiment.

The election outcome has immediate implications for environmental policy. Lula’s current administration reduced deforestation in the Amazon by more than 70 percent over the past four years and cracked down on illegal mining. Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform mirrored his father’s approach, which had facilitated an illegal gold rush that affected the Yanomami Indigenous reserve. A newly elected congress features a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental protections, which may complicate future legislative efforts.

International leaders have begun congratulating Lula on his victory. The result positions Brazil to maintain a multilateral foreign policy that balances relations with the United States, China, and Russia. Lula has previously rejected invitations to join a coalition of Latin American countries conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon, a move that would have increased US involvement on Brazilian soil. The election occurred alongside other high-stakes votes, including a leadership change in Serbia and upcoming polls in Israel.

Lula will turn 81 on Tuesday. The next major international event is scheduled for Tuesday when Israel goes to the polls. In the UK, Chancellor John Healey is expected to deliver his first budget statement on Wednesday. The Brazilian president is set to take office for a new term following the standard transition period, with the opposition likely to monitor the process closely given the narrow margin of victory.