European voters may rest easy if Democrats take Congress

The US midterm elections are approaching with polling data indicating a clear advantage for the Democratic Party. Current surveys suggest the party holds an average eight-point lead in races for both the House of Representatives and the Senate. While a Democratic victory would likely improve transatlantic relations, European analysts argue it carries specific risks for the continent.

The first concern involves a potential shift in European voter psychology regarding the rise of far-right movements. Catherine Fieschi, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe who specializes in these parties, noted that a Democratic win would be interpreted as evidence that democratic systems can self-correct. She described this as proof that democracies bounce back and that a shift in power does not signal the start of a fascist regime.

Fieschi, speaking from Paris, predicted a debate over whether a victory for Marine Le Pen should be viewed with intense fear or simply as a temporary fluctuation in public opinion. Le Pen currently leads polls for the French presidential election scheduled for April 18, with surveys placing her support at approximately 34 percent. Fieschi argued that a US Democratic win might encourage the view that voters can always correct the course later, similar to a game of swings and roundabouts.

Historical data supports the idea that external political events influence domestic confidence. A June 2025 poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations, conducted after Trump’s first six months in office, found that clear majorities in Western Europe believed the US political system was broken. In contrast, majorities in Eastern Europe, a sample that leaned toward right-wing voters, said the US system functioned well.

The second major risk concerns Ukraine. Fieschi warned that a weakened White House might prompt President Donald Trump to rush a deal with Vladimir Putin. This refers to US-Russian efforts to push Ukraine into a peace agreement that surrenders the eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called this a strategic error that would lead to renewed war, and most Ukrainians oppose the terms.

A Le Pen presidency would also impact support for Ukraine through three controversial proposals: cutting French contributions to the EU budget to fund earlier retirement, reducing military aid to Ukraine, and potentially leaving the euro for a devalued franc. According to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker, a cut in French aid would remove 3.5 percent of Ukraine's foreign military aid, creating a gap that other allies would need to fill.

Trump has already used various levers to pressure Kyiv. He has utilized US early warning systems for incoming ballistic missiles and Starlink satellite navigation as bargaining chips. He has also twice echoed Russian calls to replace Zelenskyy. Victoria Vdovychenko, a Ukraine expert at Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics, added that Russia could intensify its all-domain war against Europe while these diplomatic shifts occur.

Vdovychenko stated that cognitive warfare on the European continent has never stopped and that Russians are using existing vulnerabilities to the utmost. She emphasized that the ongoing conflict provides a constant backdrop for these strategic maneuvers.

European public opinion has already moved away from reliance on Washington. A Bertelsmann Stiftung poll found that only 31 percent of Europeans view the US as their most trustworthy ally, a drop from 51 percent in 2024. Additionally, 73 percent say Europe should go its own way, up from 63 percent. A June Pew Research Center poll across 36 countries found that 76 percent of respondents expressed no confidence in Trump.

These shifts in sentiment were formed over two Trump terms and are expected to persist even if the US congressional balance changes. The ongoing Russian war in Europe makes these views difficult to reverse quickly, suggesting that European policy will remain independent of the outcome in Washington.