Texas border voters lean Democratic

Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley are showing signs of moving back toward the Democratic Party. This shift is happening just days before the midterm elections scheduled for November 3. The region was a key area where Donald Trump secured a record 55% of the Hispanic vote in 2024.

New surveys conducted since late summer show a majority of these voters now disapprove of the president. They favor Democrats over Republicans by a large margin. This trend contradicts the Republican assumption that their 2024 gains in this demographic were permanent.

Border enforcement remains a central issue. Government data shows Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026. This is the highest share of any state. Father Roy Snipes, a priest who has served the local Catholic chapel for nearly 50 years, told his congregation that there is no good excuse to detain their neighbors.

Local business leaders feel the strain. Mario Guerrero, a Republican who voted for Trump three times, plans to vote for a Democrat in November. He cited a workforce crisis where a crew of 35 workers has shrunk to just four or six. He argued that the administration did not clearly explain how far the immigration crackdown would go.

In the 15th congressional district, the political map has changed. Republicans redrew the district in 2025 to create an 18-point majority for their party. Current polling, however, shows Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido leading by five or six points. Pulido, a Tejano singer, campaigns on the local economy rather than the national party brand.

Republican strategists admit the ground is shifting. Tano Tijerina, the candidate for the neighboring 28th district, acknowledged that national political headwinds are real. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the race as purely a game of turnout.

The stakes extend beyond the House races. A modest swing to Democrats could put a US Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat in more than 30 years.