Israel Election: Trump Aides Weigh Pivot to Opposition
With Netanyahu's bloc trailing by six seats, senior US officials are preparing diplomatic channels for a potential change in leadership before the October 27 vote.
By Diego Ross ·
54 seats. That is the current lead held by the opposition bloc in the latest Maariv poll, a margin that is prompting senior advisers to US President Donald Trump to prepare for a potential shift in Jerusalem. According to US officials, these aides are optimistic about the prospect of engaging with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rivals if the incumbent loses the upcoming election.
The move reflects a calculated diplomatic stance rather than a unified party line. One Trump adviser described the strategy to Axios by noting that Netanyahu is the devil the president knows. This pragmatic view contrasts with the positions of other senior staff. Many of the president's closest advisers opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu, arguing that the US should have remained entirely out of the Israeli electoral process.
Vice President JD Vance adopted a middle-ground approach this week. He declined to explicitly back the prime minister when asked about the race. Vance told reporters that he was not attacking or endorsing Netanyahu, but emphasized that the president's endorsement is the one that carries weight. This stance allows the administration to maintain flexibility as the vote approaches.
Internal tensions over Israeli policy are also influencing this readiness to pivot. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack has expressed concern over the Netanyahu government's handling of Syria. Following Israeli strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province, Barrack called the action an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability. Such friction suggests that a new government in Israel could offer a different dynamic for US regional engagement.
The State Department under Secretary of State Marco Rubio maintains a closer relationship with the prime minister. However, Rubio's team believes Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon's government. They have also voiced frustration with what they view as Netanyahu's failure to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. These specific policy disagreements provide a clear framework for how a new administration in Jerusalem might be welcomed.
The political context for these diplomatic preparations is a weakening polling position for the incumbent. The October 27 vote is now less than a week away. The Maariv survey indicates that Netanyahu's bloc has dropped to 48 seats. In a direct head-to-head matchup for the prime minister role, opposition leader Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 49 percent support against 41 percent for the incumbent.
The electorate also shows a preference for coalition building if the results are inconclusive. Sixty percent of respondents prefer a unity government if the election fails to produce a clear majority. Among those supporters, 33 percent want a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead such a government, compared with 19 percent who prefer Netanyahu. The administration is thus positioning itself to work with whichever bloc emerges as the stronger partner.
Source: The Jerusalem Post
