Alcis Satellite Data Finds 9,000 Hectares of Poppies in Balochistan

Opium production is moving across borders.

Since the Taliban imposed a ban on narcotics in 2022, Afghanistan's output has dropped. However, new satellite imagery and farmer interviews indicate that cultivation has shifted into neighboring Pakistan and Iran. David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on the illicit drugs industry, states that this shift has turned the remote borderlands into a global center for opium production. He argues that the ban and regional instability created the conditions for this expansion. Experts warn that this trend could increase heroin supplies and fund armed groups.

Pakistan's Balochistan province sits at the center of this change. It is the country's largest and poorest region, plagued by a long-running insurgency. Islamabad denies widespread cultivation, claiming any found crops are destroyed. The Interior Ministry and provincial government did not respond to comment requests. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimates production in Pakistan remains marginal, though it acknowledges data suggests spillover effects.

Alcis, a British firm, analyzed satellite imagery and found over 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Balochistan. Most are in the Loralai and Killa Abdullah districts. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member, claims senior military officials and power brokers back the cultivation. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, disputes this, citing a previous eradication campaign. Alcis data from 2026 shows no clear evidence of that destruction.

Farmers in Killa Abdullah describe a system of bribes. They pay local authorities through intermediaries. Some claim officials plant poppies on barren land to make eradication look successful when media attention rises. Lala Jan Kakar notes that drought and floods have ruined fruit farming. He says the demand and income from poppies now outweigh other crops. This shift is driven by Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand leasing land in Pakistan. They invest millions of rupees in solar wells and share profits.

A similar pattern exists in Iran. Afghan farmers work as tenants and sharecroppers, often relying on family ties. Cultivation has been reported in several provinces, but Sistan-Baluchistan remains the main area. Satellite images show extensive fields, some using drip irrigation. This costly setup suggests growers expected little risk of eradication. Iranian authorities, focused on conflicts with the United States and Israel since late February, have not destroyed the 2026 crop. Experts predict further growth as the economy struggles.

Cultivation is also rebounding inside Afghanistan. Production is concentrated in Badakhshan and southwestern provinces. Farmers there have protested the ban, citing debt and drought. Mansfield notes that southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. He describes a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in the borderlands.

The Taliban recently issued a directive barring home searches for poppy without a court order. Mansfield warns this concession may signal tolerance for cultivation beyond walled compounds. He suggests this could lead to a dramatic rise in production in 2027. Armed groups also compete for tax revenues from this trade, including people smuggling and fuel sales.

Alcis data confirms the scale of the shift. The 9,000 hectares in Balochistan represent a major new source of opium. Farmers in the region have doubled their cultivated land in 2026. This expansion marks a clear change in global supply chains.