Election Looms as 99,000 Israelis Depart in Two-Year Record

For residents of a nation of roughly 10 million, the decision to stay or go has become a central calculation in daily life. Itai Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, notes that many citizens are questioning whether they wish to raise their children in a country marked by war and economic instability. This hesitation is occurring just days before a national election that could determine the next government's direction.

The scale of departure is historical. A study published in February by Ater and colleagues, using data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, recorded 99,000 Israelis leaving between January 2023 and December 2024. The researchers defined departure as being away for at least three consecutive months and spending more than 270 days outside the country during the first year. Approximately 50,000 left in 2023, while 49,000 departed in 2024. Ater indicates that preliminary data shows this pattern continued through 2025.

The timeline of departure aligns with major political and military events. In 2023, the Hamas attack on southern Israel killed roughly 1,200 people and resulted in the capture of 250 hostages. Israel responded with a military campaign in the Gaza Strip. A fragile ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although Israel maintains control over about 60 percent of the enclave and continues regular military operations there. Politically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose corruption trial began in 2020, has remained in power without a verdict.

Next week's election introduces a new variable. Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, seeks to retain power. Current polls suggest his far-right bloc will not reach the 61 Knesset seats required to form a government. Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, is positioned to win the most seats but is also expected to fall short of a majority. Because coalitions are typically necessary to govern, the post-vote maneuvering often determines the final outcome, a process in which Netanyahu has demonstrated long-standing skill.

Ater warns that the lack of a clear political change could drive emigration higher. He stated, "These [emigration] numbers will go up dramatically." The impact is visible on the ground. Avigail Ben-Porat, a 50-year-old single mother in Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanese border, says she wishes to leave but lacks the financial means. She regularly hears rocket fire and reports that many friends have relocated to Portugal, Canada, Thailand, and India.

The composition of those leaving presents a specific economic concern. The study identifies a sharp increase in the departure of skilled professionals. Between 2023 and 2024, there were net departures of 2,360 engineers and 509 doctors. Ater argues that Israel's economy relies heavily on this human capital, particularly in the technology sector, academia, and health care.

Corporate leaders are also reassessing their operations. Liam Schwartz, who heads the corporate immigration department at the Tel Aviv law firm Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, reports that some firms face pressure from non-Israeli shareholders and investors. These stakeholders are concerned about the viability of operating from Israel and are more willing to shift workforce components to North America or Europe. Schwartz traces this discontent to January 2023, when the government proposed judicial reforms intended to reduce the powers of the Supreme Court.

Schwartz described the current situation as a perception that the government is no longer meeting its part of the social contract. He views the October vote as a potential watershed for whether emigration rises. Ater describes the stakes as a strategic risk to Israel as a democracy and a liberal country, noting that the trend is a concern for the Middle East and the wider world.