66.4% of Lebanese Shi'ites Support State Control of Hezbollah Arms

66.4 percent of Lebanese Shi'ites support transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the state, according to a survey conducted in September. The poll, carried out by Statistics Lebanon among 800 respondents, marks a notable shift in sentiment within the community that has traditionally backed the group. Only 29.6 percent of those surveyed said Hezbollah should retain its arsenal.

The findings emerged in mid-October and were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org. Kataeb.org, the digital arm of the Christian Kataeb Party which opposes Hezbollah, provided additional details from the dataset. The results suggest that the community is questioning the group's role in national defense and governance.

Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces is high. Approximately 78.5 percent of respondents said they trust the army, and 51.1 percent named it as the institution best suited to guarantee long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5 percent selected Hezbollah for that role. Furthermore, 71.1 percent indicated that decisions on war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state, while just 5.9 percent wanted Hezbollah's leadership to play a larger role in shaping the country's future.

However, the data reveals a complex picture of loyalty. Some 67.4 percent of respondents said Hezbollah had either failed to meet its goals in the recent war with Israel or achieved only partial success. About 42.1 percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership. Despite this, 59.5 percent still expressed some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1 percent reporting a great deal of confidence.

Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status within the sect sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum. An earlier survey by Lebanon's Information International in May 2026 told a different story, with 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposing disarmament. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies argued that differences in wording may have shaped these conflicting results.

Hezbollah has suffered major losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in southern villages. The group has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike.