Votel asserts fresh Iran strikes degrade capacity without ending conflict

Retired U.S. Army General Joseph Votel stated that a new series of American and Israeli attacks on Iran will likely reduce the nation's military capabilities but will not conclude the war.

Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, currently directs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He told NPR that many probable targets have already been struck, and Iran has demonstrated the ability to reconstruct those assets. He argued that fresh strikes primarily serve to buy time, punish Tehran, and degrade specific functions, yet they have failed to alter the Iranian government's strategic calculations regarding the war's trajectory.

The general noted that the Iranian government has adopted a harder line and is more willing to execute bold counterattacks. In response, Votel emphasized the necessity of a precise objective. He stated that Washington must define the desired end state and establish the conditions for declaring the war over. He identified the resolution of the nuclear enrichment issue and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the core requirements for that end state.

According to Votel, military force is merely one component of a necessary strategy that includes economic, diplomatic, and information pressure. He pointed to the financial sector as the area showing the most tangible progress. The ongoing blockade and sanctions are increasing pressure, and recent reporting indicates that Iran's shadow fleet has exhausted its oil reserves. While this approach requires time, Votel observed definite movement in that direction.

The general acknowledged that U.S. aims have been difficult to interpret. He explained that the primary goals involve reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow freer movement of oil and commerce, which would help lower domestic fuel prices. The second major concern is Iran's nuclear program. Votel also cited Iran's use of proxies to create regional instability, including connections to the Houthis, but he maintained that Hormuz and enrichment remain the principal issues.

Regarding military readiness, Votel said U.S. offensive power in the region remains substantial and the ability to strike is not in question. However, he identified missile defense as a potential constraint. Previous reporting has described heavy pressure on the defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. Votel assessed that while offensive capability is sufficient, the defensive sector may face limitations.