Ice in Vilkitsky Strait Halts Tankers as South Korea Ships Enter Northern Sea Route

Two nuclear-powered icebreakers could not clear pack ice for a group of sanctioned Russian tankers that anchored in the Vilkitsky Strait in July, and only one vessel eventually passed through the 55-kilometer channel. The others waited up to 14 days before diverting to another route. Ksenia Vakhrusheva, who heads the Arctic project at the Lithuania-based group Bellona, said the episode shows that "less ice doesn't mean easier navigation," because warming can break ice into floes that jam narrow straits and trap ships lacking an ice class.

The delay undercuts the Kremlin's case for the Northern Sea Route as a dependable corridor to Asian markets. President Vladimir Putin described the route last month at the launch of the Vostok Oil project on the Taimyr Peninsula as "a reliable and safe path to the world's largest markets." He said 37 million tons of cargo moved along parts of the route in 2025 and predicted the figure would "almost double" by 2030. Kremlin officials pursued a target of 80 million tons by 2024. The Norway-funded Center for High North Logistics recorded about 2 million tons of mainly crude oil, roughly 15 million barrels, moved along the whole route through the end of September, mostly from Murmansk. Reuters, citing traders and shipping data, put the total near 20 million barrels by mid-October, a 50 percent rise from 2025 but about 1 percent of Russia's seaborne oil exports. Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at Ambrey, called it a surge "from a relatively low base."

Sanctions constrain the fleet that would keep the route open. Alexa said spare parts and construction materials for Arctic-capable vessels must often pass through third parties, and that repair work once handled by Norwegian, Danish and Dutch firms is no longer available.

Traffic from other countries is growing despite those limits. South Korea reported on October 22 that its first container ship had used the route, and officials noted large ice floes in the Bering and Vilkitsky straits. China ran a scheduled container service to Europe along the route for the first time this year. Catherine Sendak of the Center for European Policy Analysis said questions remain over tolls and services Moscow might offer commercial vessels, and whether Russia could limit access for others.

Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign affairs chief, said on October 21 while outlining a new EU Arctic strategy that the region "has become a front line of global power competition." NATO launched its Arctic Sentry mission in February, and the United States announced plans last month to expand its military presence in Greenland. Vakhrusheva said Russia publishes no data on incidents along the route and that no independent group can report on them from the remote area.

South Korean officials called their vessel's October 22 transit a shortcut to Europe but cited difficult conditions, including large ice floes in the Bering and Vilkitsky straits. Environmental groups warn about aging shadow fleet tankers in these waters: Vakhrusheva said oil degrades more slowly in cold conditions and can spread over ice.