Republicans defend congressional majorities as Democrats eye midterm gains

Republicans and Democrats entered the final stretch of the US midterm campaign with control of Congress at stake and President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda facing a major electoral test. Polling pointed to Democrats taking the House of Representatives, while the party also had a chance to capture the Senate in Tuesday’s vote.

The final New York Times/Siena poll, released Sunday evening, put Democratic candidates ahead in all seven seats considered the most competitive, although five leads were within the margin of error. A Democratic congressional majority would create a political check on Trump, and a substantial victory could help set the stage for the contest to succeed him in 2028.

Trump spent Sunday rallying supporters in Iowa and Kansas, states he previously won comfortably but where Republicans now face strong Democratic challenges. He predicted broad Republican victories during a two-hour Iowa speech, then arrived late for an airport rally in Kansas. Hundreds departed before his nearly 90-minute address ended. Since October 1, he has held more than two dozen rallies across 19 states, with a final pitch scheduled Monday at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington.

A record 54 million early votes had already been cast. Trump’s campaign itinerary underscored the pressure on Republicans: after seeking to win back states carried by Joe Biden during the 2024 campaign, he has concentrated this year on territory where he previously commanded strong support. Some voters, including former supporters, have questioned the economic consequences of his tariffs and the war he launched in Iran.

Democrats faced their own disruption in Michigan when Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers after appearing with him at a church service. Stevens had narrowly lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed and had criticized his support for Israel as inadequate. She said her endorsement followed the withdrawal of an invitation to a Democratic event and a message that she was unwelcome in El-Sayed’s campaign.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand reaffirmed their backing for El-Sayed. Senator Bernie Sanders, a leading El-Sayed supporter, also dismissed concerns about division, saying voters across Michigan would support the nominee. Losing the Michigan seat would increase pressure on Democrats to win in more Republican territory, including Texas, Kansas, Ohio or Iowa.

Republicans offered differing assessments of their prospects. Outgoing Nebraska Representative Don Bacon warned that Trump’s tariffs were unpopular in the Midwest and predicted an internal debate about the party’s direction if losses were substantial. Senator Tim Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, expressed confidence that Republicans would retain the Senate and embraced Trump’s central campaign role.

Advertising spending reached about $11 billion, with major contributions from wealthy individual donors. Trump ally Elon Musk, who led the DOGE effort that dismantled entire government departments, contributed nearly half a billion dollars to help elect Republicans. The campaign also unfolded amid concerns that Republicans might reject defeat, recalling Trump’s attempt to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss.

On Sunday, a federal judge dismissed an administration lawsuit seeking to block certification of a possible Senate victory by Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola. The lawsuit argued that a minor candidate sharing Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan’s name had allegedly been recruited by Democrats to divert votes, and that a Peltola victory therefore should not be certified.